The nonmetallic mineral products industry leading index decreased to 249.5 in June from a revised 250.2 in May, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Its six-month smoothed growth rate decreased to 1.3 percent in June from a revised 2.3 percent in May.
The six-month smoothed growth rate is a compound annual rate that measures the near-term trend. A growth rate above +1.0 percent is usually a signal of future growth in industry activity, while a growth rate below -1.0 percent points to a decrease in activity.
After declining from November 2015 through March 2016, the leading index growth rate has been above the threshold that normally suggests an increase in activity in the nonmetallic mineral products industry for three consecutive months.
In June, the index of new private housing units authorized by permits added a positive contribution to the leading index; nevertheless, average weekly hours, nonmetallic mineral products and the spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury Note and the federal funds rate made negative contributions, more than offsetting the housing units’ positive contribution.
The nonmetallic mineral products industry coincident index, which measures current industry activity, decreased to 143.4 in June from a revised 144.3 in May. Its six-month smoothed growth rate decreased to 1.2 percent in June from a revised 3.2 percent in May.
The industrial production index, nonmetallic mineral products and total employee hours, nonmetallic mineral products both made negative contributions to the coincident index. There were no positive contributions to the coincident index in June. The coincident index growth rate has declined from December 2015 through June. This suggests gathering weakness in the nonmetallic mineral products industry